The second round of the NBA playoffs continues Wednesday with a pair of Game 2s: 76ers at Heat (-8) and Mavericks at Suns (-6). The Heat and Suns both won convincingly at home in their respective Game 1s, but can the underdogs even the series in Game 2? Don’t make any bets without first looking at tonight’s NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model is a perfect 4-0 on spread picks rated at least two stars in the past three days, good for a total return of $364 on $100 bets.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game, so sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
Odds in this article are subject to change.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
Trends: This will continue to be an uphill battle for the Sixers without Joel Embiid, who will at least miss Game 2 while he recovers from an orbital bone fracture and concussion. Philly showed signs of life in the first half of Game 1 after falling behind by 14, taking a 51-50 lead at halftime, but Miami ballooned their lead in the second half to 21 before winning 106-92.
Miami has had plenty of success against teams that fail to ramp up the defensive pressure, going 33-14 ATS when playing a team that forces 13 or fewer turnovers a game; the Heat also had just 11 turnovers in Game 1.
James Harden had just 16 points on 5-for-13 shooting last game after averaging just 19 points per game in the first round. With Embiid out, if Harden can’t find that “take-over-the-game” form quickly, this series could get out of hand fast.
Top Player Prop: James Harden UNDER 32.5 points + assists (-111) on FanDuel. Coming off that 16-point Game 1, Harden is now averaging just 18.6 points and 9.4 assists in the playoffs — numbers that don’t bring him near this total. While he has averaged a solid 9.2 assists in his past five games, with Joel Embiid out the easy assists just aren’t there. Harden hasn’t shown much consistency that will lead you to believe he can put together an entire game where he’ll go OVER this total right now.
BetQL Staff Pick: Heat -8. The glaring void left by Embiid was obvious in Game 1, as the Heat dominated the Sixers in the second half. Despite a solid performance by Tobias Harris (27 points, six rebounds in 37 minutes), James Harden (16 points, nine rebounds, five assists) had an off night and couldn’t take over. Tyrese Maxey chipped in 19 points and two assists. Other than that, Philly’s bench was terrible, and the team as a whole had no answer for Heat center Bam Adebayo, who coasted to 24 points and 12 boards and dominated the paint on both ends of the floor. There’s nobody on this Sixers roster who can limit Adebayo, especially in pick-and-roll situations and around the rim in general, so I expect that action to continue in Game 2. Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler and Co. can simply overpower Philadelphia without Embiid.– Dan Karpuc
Trends: Luka Doncic’s 45 points weren’t enough for the Mavs in Game 1, and a lot had to do with the fact that DeAndre Ayton dominated Dallas inside, going 12-for-20 from the floor on his way to 25 points.
Overall, Phoenix shot 50.5 percent from the floor and outrebounded Dallas 51-36, so you can see why Luka’s game still didn’t do the trick.
Dallas has had plenty of success against good shooting teams throughout the year, going 26-17 SU against teams that shoot at least 46 percent overall, so their slower pace and tight defense will have to be just about perfect in Game 2 to get back on track.
It also doesn’t help when the Suns go 18-for-18 from the free-throw line like they did to open the series. That also helped them keep a lead the entire game, with it getting up to 21 points at one point.
Top Player Prop: DeAndre Ayton OVER 19.5 points (+100) on DraftKings. Ayton dominated Dallas inside, going 12-for-20 from the floor on his way to 25 points in Game 1. Ayton has put up 21.1 points per game in his seven playoff appearances this year, and given how well the Suns executed the part of the game plan that got him involved last time out, getting even money on a 20-point game is a solid play here.
BetQL Staff Pick: Suns -6. It will take a whole lot for the Mavs to win this game outright, but given the fact that they still almost covered in Game 1, taking Dallas and the points in Game 2 isn’t out of the question. If the spread starts to get up past +6, Dallas just might cover, but at six points or less, I’m on the Suns making it 2-0 ATS and in the series, as well.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
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